Behind this optimism, however, the market still faces heavy “sell walls” and key resistance zones that may determine whether TON can surge 50% or remain stuck in a narrow trading range.
Institutional Push
Toncoin has drawn attention with a series of institutional-level moves. The official announcement of TON Strategy’s $250 million buyback program signals capital growth expectations and proactive capital management, while not all buyback programs help increase token prices.
At the same time, AlphaTON Capital recently launched a digital asset treasury strategy focusing on the Telegram ecosystem. The company is expected to initially accumulate around $100 million worth of TON, creating an additional institutional demand channel and expanding TON’s potential for storage and utility.
Previously, Verb Technology held over $780 million in TON assets, marking a strategic shift toward Toncoin as its primary reserve asset.
TON at a Critical Juncture
On the market side, Toncoin is trading around the $3.1–$3.4 range, well below its recent short-term peak. Typically, the emergence of treasury funds and buyback programs helps reduce circulating supply and enhance holding sentiment, which could support a potential rally if substantial trading volumes confirm it.
From a technical perspective, several analyses show that TON consolidates within a triangle pattern, often a precursor to major price movements. Analyst Ali notes that if a decisive breakout occurs, the price could swing as much as 50%.
However, in shorter timeframes, the market faces large “sell walls.” Before reaching $3.525, TON must break through three more sell walls, which could act as near-term resistance to its upward momentum.
In the short term, supply-demand dynamics are evident: TON has been repeatedly rejected around the $3.4–$3.45 zone, widely viewed as a strong supply block. Without sufficient buying pressure, the price could retest the $3.00–$3.27 levels before choosing its next direction. In a less optimistic scenario, TON might even retrace toward $2.68.
“Market structure shows EQL formed, which often acts as liquidity magnets. A clean sweep here could fuel a move back up into the imbalance zone,” one X user noted.
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